December 29,2025
RED FM News Desk
A B.C. government report estimates that a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Vancouver Island could cause more than 3,400 deaths and over 10,000 injuries. The scenario also predicts $128 billion in losses, the destruction of 18,000 buildings and serious damage to another 10,000.
The assessment, part of the province’s disaster and climate risk report dated October 2025, notes that such a “megathrust” quake is among the more likely earthquake scenarios in B.C. The greatest damage would be expected on Vancouver Island and in a roughly 20-kilometre-wide corridor along the mainland, including Vancouver, from the U.S. border to the Sunshine Coast.
The quake would likely trigger a tsunami, reaching the west coast of Vancouver Island within 10–20 minutes, and the island’s east coast and the Lower Mainland within 30–60 minutes. Aftershocks, landslides, ground liquefaction, fires, and flooding would also be widespread.
The report says a similar quake last occurred in 1700 and estimates the chance of another event of this scale at between two and 10 per cent over the next 30 years.
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